Madison Taylor


From the editor's desk

Archive for the 'Hurricane Alley' Category

As the superstorm drama unfolds

October 29th, 2012, 9:08 pm by

As friends and family in New Jersey and New York  braced on Sunday and Monday for the inevitable thrashing predicted from Hurricane / Superstorm Sandy one of my former colleagues who got into a better line of work asked on social media if I was feeling left out. Especially since it looked like Piedmont North Carolina would be on the sidelines for this one.

Not in the least, would be the polite way to answer the question. Hell no, would be more accurate.

My brother-in-law, who only a day before was at a costume party dressed in the regalia of a Catholic nun (my brother-in-law the sister!) called my spouse to tell her they had moved everything from the first floor of their Cranford, N.J. house either upstairs or into storage and sought higher ground at the home of friends in a neighboring town. We haven’t spoken to them since. My wife’s cousins in New York and New Jersey expressed via Facebook that forecasts for the storm had them scared to death.

I completely understood. In 15 years of living on the North Carolina coast we had to ride out at least 10 atorms of varying degreess of strength. All were a little different, as I’ve noted here many times before. Some caused flooding at high tide. One packed incredible winds that felled century old trees. One caused almost no beach damage to speak of but left a trail of woe via tidal estuaries and catastrophic flooding. One of the worst storms was a strong category 1, kind of like Sandy. But I also saw a category 3 up close and can’t say I liked it much.

And I’ll admit this: I was terrified every single time.

The media do a tremendous job of covering the advance of these natural monsters. Hurricanes are unlike earthquakes. The things are built for drama. Weather forecasters monitor them from afar. Along the way, tropical cyclones wobble, twist and turn. They grow weaker and stronger. Until the last minute, it’s never a certainty where a hurricane might decide to go. Once a storm lands, the supply of dramatic photos is endless.

And all the time, folks in the target zones watch reports endlessly and in ever escalating panic. They ask “will it be us this time” but also quietly hope it doesn’ t strike someone else. The Weather Channel sounds a clarion call of warnings, echoed by emergency managers and government officials. By the time a storm is about to arrive the collective blood pressure of a community is racing in the red. “You’re all hyped up,” as my wife is wont to say.

I’m part of the churning media culture that gets people in that state of mind and I can’t apologize for it, I am both drawn to the storms and repulsed by the gigantic amount of waste caused by the preparation and destruction. But hurricanes are nothing to toy with and it’s our job to provide the public with as much good information as it can get. I can say that when the power is out, people depend on the newspaper again.

But I won’t say it’s easy, fun or heroic. Hurricanes are huge wasters of a reporter’s time when all is said and done. The stories are there and have to be done, but other sometimes more important things are left in the debris of a passing storm.

Tonight I’ve alternated between last night’s episode of “The Walking Dead,” The Weather Channel, Twitter and Facebook. Outside the wind is gusting at around 30 mph — and the center of the storm is now over Philadelphia a few hundred miles away. This is a whopper storm, a once in a lifetime storm. For one, it’s late in the Atlantic hurricane season for a storm on the East Coast. The latest recorded hurricane to strike North Carolina was on Halloween. And while the year escapes me, it was before forecasters began naming the things.

The damage last night appeared massive. Parts of New York City, New Jersey, Rhode Island,  Maryland and Delaware are flooded. The historic boardwalk at Atlantic City, N.J. is wrecked. We’ll know more about damages as day breaks and the folks who assess these things began their survey.

But I’m guessing damages will be in the billions.

At this point, though, I’m looking forward to getting word from family and friends in harm’s way that the storm has cleared and they’re safe.

That might take awhile.

UPDATE: My brother-in-law and his family are all safe. A little worn, without power and surrounded by downed trees. Thank goodness. I hope to hear from more friends and relatives as Tuesday unfolds.

Confessions of a hurricane geek

September 3rd, 2011, 9:57 pm by

Irene, the first big hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina since Isabel in 2002, has come and gone. Thankfully, like Bonnie in 1998, a once fearsome Category 4 storm that was larger than three states, Irene weakened as its outer northeast quadrant began to touch land and turned a potentially catastrophic hurricane into merely a troublesome one.

Yes, my name is Madison Taylor and I am a hurricane geek.

It’s a painful admission to be sure. The sad thing, though, is that it’s a problem much tougher on those in close proximity to me than it is to myself. After all, how many people actually want to hear details about the highest wind speed recorded at North Topsail Beach during Hurricane Bertha on July 12, 1996 or the meandering and borderline GPS-addled path of Hurricane Dennis in 1999?

Nobody, that’s who.

Until, of course, a hurricane comes along, like it did last week.

“Do you ever remember a hurricane that has the characteristics of this one?” asked Elliott Potter, my longtime friend, coworker and boss at the Jacksonville Daily News, where we pretty much lived under Hurricane Watch for 15 years together. He posed the question when the storm was 48 hours from landfall.

I reared back and began, “Well, in 1999, Floyd …”

Six hours later I realized he was no longer on the telephone.

Sadly, there is no self-help program for this particular condition. Experts write books about fear of commitment, aversions to joy, eating to lose, eating to win, eating to tie, daring to fail or failing to dare. But there’s zip about being bonkers over the minutiae of something known as the “northern eyewall.”

I wasn’t born this way, honest. Once I was a normal person who checked the weather by opening the door each day.

Then in 1992 I moved to the North Carolina coast and began a long-term addiction to The Weather Channel’s Tropical Update.

Last weekend, I spent large chunks of time watching Jim Cantore and other Weather Channel heroes in rain slickers as they perched from Nags Head to Cape May, Mass. to report on a storm that will be forever remembered as the one that trudged up I-95 from North Carolina to New York City and beyond. The media hype for it was nearly as large as the storm itself.

But was it overblown as many second-guessers are now saying?

Yes and no.

The potential destruction of a landfalling hurricane can’t be overstated and in my experience lunkheads who refuse to leave barrier islands can’t be warned of the danger enough. At one time Irene was a Category 3 storm with winds in the 120 mph range. Luckily it weakened and sped up after slogging ashore.

That was lucky for all. Because even a weakened Category 1 storm left more than 40 dead along its path and billions in damages. Message to people: Get out of the way when a storm like this one is about to land and stay out of the way until it’s gone.

But overall the national coverage — magnified 100-fold by the impact on New York City — at times bordered on the hysterical — and that’s when they weren’t getting it completely wrong. The online Daily Beast, for example, reported that there was a fatality in Rocky Mountain, North Carolina. The New York Times reported about activities on a place called Emerald Island.

Get it right or go home.

And isn’t it about time that every half-baked local TV station call a moratorium on the obligatory shot of a reporter standing in 80 mph wind hanging on to a telephone pole?

Here in Alamance County, there was very little to report. Even our rainfall was microscopic. The Alamance-Orange county line seemed to be the cutoff point for Irene-related incidents. There were trees down in the Mebane area, which photographer Scott Muthersbaugh saw and shot. Brian Ewing of Burlington sent me an e-mail and reported that his mother recorded a wind gust of 50.2 mph at her home on Maple Avenue  — pretty impressive mark so far from the center of the storm.

But, of course, we all know that could turn out far differently the next time a hurricane moves into the state. Why, I remember Hurricane Fran in 1996 …

Updating: Irene post-mortems

August 29th, 2011, 6:32 am by

Irene, the first big hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina since Isabel in 2002 has come and gone. Thankfully, like Bonnie in 1998, a once fearsome category 4 storm that was larger than three states, Irene weakened as its outer northeast quadrant began to touch land and turned a potentially catastrophic hurricane into a troublesome one. Still, it’s important to remember that a large category 1 storm left 25 dead along its path and billions in damages. Message to people: Get out of the way when a storm like this one is about to land and stay out of the way until it’s gone.

This will be remembered as the storm that trudged up I-95 to New York City and beyond. The media hype for it was nearly as large as the storm itself.

Here in Alamance County, there was very little to report. Even our rainfall was microscopic. That led one friend of mine to observe that apparently there is a dome over Alamance County these days when it comes to rainfall. We remain in a pretty serious drought. Irene brought no relief at all on that score.

 Along the coast, though, it was a major event.

My friends at my former newspaper the Jacksonville Daily News did an outstanding job covering a storm that arrived in their back yard — making landfall Saturday morning at Cape Lookout. A continuing hurricane blog was a highlight of their coverage throughout the day and into Sunday. Their reporters and photographers remained busy even though nearly all were without power. The newspaper wisely published its Saturday and Sunday editions on Friday before the storm arrived in full.

Luckily, the Daily News office had power restored in time to produce a Monday newspaper with full Hurricane Irene coverage. We weren’t sure that would be the case. The contingency plan was for a couple of Daily News copydesk staffers to come here to Burlington and produce an eight-page edition for Jacksonville as well as our company’s newspapers in Kinston and New Bern. We were set up to help them pull it off if needed — but thankfully, they didn’t have to do it.

Take it from me, such an operation is pretty back-breaking.

All in all, great work under very trying circumstances by a dedicated group of people downeast. I salute them.

Other Irene observations

1. I was annoyed by the national coverage of Irene, which bordered on hysterical — and that’s when they weren’t getting it completely wrong. The online Daily Beast, for example, reported that there was a fatality in Rocky Mountain North Carolina.

Get it right or go home.

And isn’t it about time that every half-baked local TV station call a moratorium on the obligatory shot of a reporter standing in 80 mph wind hanging on to a telephone pole?

2. Quite a few people called over the weekend to tell us they watched power crews in trucks headed east down the interstate. Some were from Kentucky, others from Georgia. On Sunday, Duke Energy deployed a crew from Charlotte. During storms or other major power-zapping events, electric companies join forces and head to the impacted areas. Should we get an ice storm, for example, crews from Georgia and Florida would advance on Alamance County.

Nice to know.

3. Brian Ewing of Burlington sent me an e-mail this morning. Said his mother recorded a wind gust of 50.2 mph at her home on Maple Avenue — pretty impressive mark so far from the center of the storm.

4. Saturday we struggled to keep up with the changing story online as Irene moved up I-95. I had online content editor put up a gallery of available photos on our site. One reader expressed her thanks.

I want to commend Joe, Roger, and Tom for the ease of viewing the pictures on the website.

I have been looking at pictures of Hurricane Irene damage from Wilmington TV sites. On one site, I cannot even get to the pictures. Some sites have a large window for the picture, but the info is at the small window below so it will not fit the screen at one time. Thanks for the large pictures with captions. The pictures are easy to find and the slide show is easy to use.

This is my hometown newspaper and I am proud of it and the website.

Thanks, Sylvia

Newspapers helping newspapers

August 23rd, 2011, 8:25 am by

Got a call yesterday afternoon from Richard Clark in Jacksonville. Richard operates the copydesk there. I don’t know Richard well, he arrived there from Kinston after I left in 2007. But I know him a little.

His message was short and didn’t have much detail. “Call Chris Griffiths,” he said.

I know Chris Griffiths, and have for a long time. Chris is one of the IT guys for Freedom’s Eastern North Carolina newspapers. He was our tech guy in Jacksonville when I worked there. He still is.

What Chris wanted, as it turns out, was something I should have anticipated. The Daily News is prepping for the possible arrival of Hurricane Irene on the weekend. During my time in Jacksonville, we handled more than a dozen storms or serious threats of storms. Even the threats required days of preparation and enough stories to wear down any staff.

In 1996, Bertha touched off a serious five to six year run of regular hurricane activity on the North Carolina coast. It made the entire area skittish and feverish watchers of The Weather Channel. A framed print of the Daily News front page after Hurricane Bertha is on my office wall now. That issue fell about in the middle of a tough two-week stretch of almost non-stop reporting. The day after the storm, we published two newspapers within a 15-hour stretch. That front is the first one. We had power restored about 7 a.m. and had that issue on the street by noon.

Because the availablity of electrical power is always dicey during a hurricane, Chris was making sure that if the Daily News has to print its paper here, the page sizes match our press. That’s a huge challenge for them these days. The Daily News is now a tabloid size instead of the more standard broadsheet we produce seven days a week. If they print here, their desk will have to do so in a size they aren’t familiar with.

I had our graphics wizard Linda Bowden get Chris set up. Later in the day, they returned the favor. I had our online content editor Joe Jurney call Scott Edgington — his counterpart in Jacksonville to help us set up an online hurricane tracking map, which should be up soon for our web audience.

One of the things I love about newspapers is our ability to work together in times of need. Within our own company it’s a snap — but it’s not unsual for newspapers to collaborate forces when things get tough. We’re already talking about what to do should Irene take an inland course after making landfall. Even though that’s possibly days away — and the storm could turn in about any direction before then, it pays to be prepared. In our case we talk to our papers in Gastonia or even our competition in Greensboro.

Whatever it takes.

Stay tuned and best of luck to my friends in Jacksonville, Onslow County and Carteret County. There are a lot of long days ahead no matter what happens.

Hurricane season just cranking up

August 22nd, 2011, 10:28 am by

Irene was just barely a hurricane when it passed Puerto Rico on Sunday night and into Monday morning — barely a hurricane but still powerful enough to take power, flood streets, knock down trees and damage homes.

Not a pleasant night, to say the least.

Yes, the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season — which continues through November — has officially arrived. From now until mid-September is the busiest time. Irene, it seems, will be just the beginning of what is supposed to be an active season.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami say that Irene poses a threat to the East Coast of the United States, from South Florida to North Carolina. The best guess about where Irene might land is simple: Who knows?

Yes, weather’s a tricky thing and forecasting it can be more mysterious than the pyramids. A Monday story by the Associated Press was instructive on that score. The Hurricane Center mystics said should the storm pass over a mountainous region of Hispaniola or Cuba then it could weaken.

Or not.

“If the system ends up moving to the north of both of those land masses it could strengthen more than expected,” wrote forecaster Richard Pasch.

North Carolinians have a great deal of experience watching these late summer and early fall behemoths form, develop, strengthen, weaken, twist and turn then either land, graze or miss the coast completely. And it’s not just the coastal regions that need to be on alert. In 1996, Hurricane Fran hit the coast with a vengeance then ripped the gut of North Carolina. In Alamance County, hundreds had to flee flooding from the Haw River and millions in property was damaged. Subsequent storms that began in Florida led to mudslides in the North Carolina mountains.

So while our friends along the coast need to pay serious attention to nearly every storm the Weather Channel decides to monitor, it pays to remember that we should do the same.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency offers a few tips to remember, even for folks who don’t have beachfront property.

n Get a kit. This one helps even in other weather emergencies such as tornadoes. Stock the kit with contact lists, lanterns, batteries, bottled water, snacks, scissors, tape, plastic sheeting and a NOAA weather radio. Keep a list of valuables in your home, with approximate values of items. You’ll be glad you did when the insurance adjuster calls.

n In case of emergency … make a plan. Families should talk in advance about what they will do in case of a storm — where to seek shelter, meeting places and how to make contact should people become separated.

n Stay informed. Read the newspaper, monitor events online or on TV. Know when potential trouble lurks and what evacuation procedures might be in place should the need arise. We’ll have updated hurricane information on our website www.thetimesnews.com.

Lives and property can be salvaged during the worst storms when people pay attention and use common sense.

It’s often easier said than done.

A miracle in Galveston

September 14th, 2008, 10:00 pm by
After the rain begins is no time to evacuate from a storm.

After the rain begins is no time to evacuate from a storm.

As Hurricane Ike approached the Texas coast people along the exposed barrier islands — speaking really of Galveston here — were warned to pack up and go or die.

It the Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore is right, then 24,000 people decided to ignore that advice and ride out what looked like a certain Category 3 storm and potential Category 4.

That was about the dumbest thing I’d ever heard of.

There was a dire notice given to those who remained behind — many as the water began to exceed the seawall on this low-lying spit of land — no rescuers would be back on the island until after Ike was finished with its work.

Riding it out after hearing that was the second dumbest thing I’d ever heard of.

I’d seen this before. Two kinds of people do something like that. The first are those who simply won’t leave their homes, thinking that whatever happens they might be able to save something of what they’ve worrked to build. I can respect those people. I wouldn’t do it myself, but I understand where they’re coming from.

The second kind, though, are simply morons — thrillseekers looking for a charge.

So far, I think Galveston got off very lucky. Ike was a strong Category 2 — but hell there’s almost no difference when it comes to 1 or 2 mph when the windspeed is already 110 mph. There have been five reported deaths in Galveston but a handful of people are still unaccounted for. If 24,000 people rode it out, then they were very, very fortunate.

In 1996 during hurricanes Bertha and Fran on the North Carolina coast a few decided to ride out the storm on Topsail Island — a barrier strip of sand. In a Category 2 or above hurricane North Topsail Beach might be the most dangerous place in the world. Before the eye is fully over it gets fully underwater. When Bertha came in July of 1996 only a hardy few stayed behind. When Fran came in September almost none did. Bertha was enough of a lesson. And besides, Bertha took all of the dunes so there was nothing left for natural protection.

But during Fran a carload of Marines decided to go over with a case of beer and check out the action. As I recall two didn’t make it. One who did survive was found in a tree.

Hurricanes are bad news when they hit directly. Hurricanes and barrier islands are a catastrophe waiting to happen.

Nice place to visit but …

September 7th, 2008, 7:48 pm by

Beckley viewHere’s my column from the print Times-News on Sunday. Sometimes I miss living in Carteret and eastern Onslow County — Swansboro is one of my favorite places in the world — but the storms … Photo, by the way, is a view from Atlantic Beach by my friend Chuck Beckley of the Jacksonville Daily News. Beckley, as some might recall, worked here in Burlington in the late 1970s and early 1980s. I met Chuck when we hired him in Jacksonville where I worked from 1992-2007. But I was familiar with him. He left Burlington before I arrived in 1984 and the photgraphers still here at that time spoke of him often. After I met him in J-ville, we shared lots of stories about living in the Piedmont.

OK, now the column.

 —-

 For the past 17 months or so – at least every time I tell people I moved back to Burlington from the coast of North Carolina – they tilted their heads and contorted their faces a touch. Then they ask what seems to be an unavoidable question.

Why?

OK, so it’s a question that seems in some ways not only unavoidable but logical, too. I’ll admit it. After all who in their right minds wouldn’t want to live at the beach? Isn’t that what people slave for year after year, decade after decade – the ability to kick back for the rest of their natural retired lives in a coastal community, the very places they used to go to grab a little well-deserved vacation from what they left behind, namely working like dogs?

There’s the ocean, the waterway, the fishing, the parasailing, the surfing, the miniature golf, the seafood – how could anybody give all that up to live off the interstate conveniently located near the J.R. place?

So the question lingers: Why?

Here’s the answer.  For those who even remotely pay attention to news or check out the Weather Channel from time to time, you’re looking at it. Tropical Storm Hanna; Hurricane Ike; Tropical Depression Josephine … Hurricane Whatever’s Next.

And believe me when I say that from late July until mid to late October there’s always a Hurricane Whatever’s Next when you live on the coast.

Always.

Over 15 years of living and covering news from Cedar Island to Topsail Island you learn something about these tropical systems that are so completely routine they even have their own season – like baseball or football.

I was in Jacksonville and Swansboro for the earliest hurricane to ever directly hit the North Carolina coast – Bertha on July 12, 1996. And I was still there when Fran came roaring through less than two months later – before some folks had their roofs repaired from Bertha. As a result, the power was out at my house a combined 10 days. The good news? The electricity thing didn’t matter. I was at the office nearly the whole time reporting on the hundreds of things that happen as a result of a catastrophic weather event.

That’s the nature of covering news in a coastal community. In the summer and early fall there’s either a hurricane on the long-range Weather Channel map, on the way, or right on the beach. And in the newspaper business all of it needs to be covered and well.

Some, like Felix simply menaced the area for week or more before petering out. Others like Emily looked over Onslow and Carteret counties before veering up to Hatteras. Then there was Gordon. It wobbled around awhile like the town drunk from state to state before it lurched back to Florida as a tropical depression.

In 1998, Hurricane Bonnie became a scarifying Category 4 storm before it simply faded and washed through with torrential rain. In 1999, Hurricane Dennis brushed the coast, hovered near Nags Head for a couple of days, then turned around and made landfall at Atlantic Beach as a tropical storm. Less than two weeks later, Hurricane Floyd swelled to a Category 5 monster that forced evacuations of millions of people  from Florida to Virginia before it weakened a bit then turned north at the last minute and only brushed the North Carolina coast. Still, combined with the rainfall from Dennis, Floyd caused epic flooding that nearly washed parts of Eastern North Carolina away.

And there was hurricanes Irene, Isabel, Alex and … well, now I can’t even remember them all myself.

But what I do recall is that the newspaper covered storms three to four days before they arrive, the day or so they pass and for weeks thereafter.

At the end of it all the staff returned home and still had to clear the debris from their own yards, fix the roof and patch the screened-in porch. Then we would once again start watching The Weather Channel’s hourly Tropical Update to find out where intrepid reporter Jim Cantore might go next to wear a rain slicker, clutch a telephone pole and try to scream into a microphone in order to be heard over winds that sound like an aircraft taking off.

I can honestly say I hadn’t missed any of this in the least little bit since I moved back to Burlington.

So what I tell friends and family still living along the coast is this: Having a wonderful time in Burlington. The weather is beautiful. Wish you were here. We’ll even go to the J.R. place if you come to town.

And that beach thing, well it’s a nice place to visit but …

Well you know the rest.

The discussion now turns to Ike

September 6th, 2008, 10:34 am by

Ike cone 

With Tropical Storm Hanna now motoring North quicker than Jag on I-95, let’s look at what folks have really been talking about in the tropics for the past few days — Hurricane Ike.

“Tropical Discussion” No. 22 on Ike released at 11 this morning by National Hurricane Center forecaster Jack Beven clearly points to Ike likely heading past Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Of all the scenarios this poses the stickiest problem.

Why?

Well, when a storm moves into the Gulf it’s only likely to get stronger because the warmer waters there simply fire it up more. And when it gets to the Gulf it’s kind of like those box canyons roving bad guys got trapped in by posses back in the ol’ West. The storm ain’t got nowhere else to go but land.

And with a storm with this potential, that ain’t good news.

That’s why most often forecasters on The Weather Channel appear to be rooting for a turn here or there. Their hope is usually that a storm will miss the U.S. — or any populated land mass — completely. Some folks don’t see it that way.

My father-in-law, for example, became enraged yesterday when Weather Channel forecasters sounded as if they hoped Ike would begin to north earlier than projected so it would miss Florida. Usually, though, when this happens it means North Carolina is in play with a big target on his home in Swansboro.

I tend to think that forecasters are only taking one situation at a time. When Florida is clear they hope a storm like Ike curves enough to miss first Georgia then South Carolina then North Carolina and then Virginia.

It just happens that North Carolina’s geography simply sticks out there further than most. It’s a target rich environment.

My hope is that Ike hits nowhere. As Beven points out it’s much too early to tell. Forecasting beyond 48 hours on a storm is a crap shoot.

Ike did get weaker so far today — down to a Category 2 storm with winds of 110 mph. But it’s not apt to stay that way.

Here’s how Beven sees it today.

“Ike continues to experience some northeasterly shear and latest Dvorak intensity estimates now suggest about 95 kt.  Global models indicate that the northeasterly shear will begin to relax later today … and Ike is now forecast to track south of the cooler waters upwelled by Hanna. Some restrengthening is anticipated in the short-term and Ike could regain major hurricane status by tomorrow.

“Ike is then expected to move over or very Cuba during the 36-72 hr time frame which should result in some weakening.  The degree of weakening will depend largely on how close Ike tracks to land. By day 4…Ike is forecast to emerge back over open waters in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Global models suggest the environment will be favorable for strengthening and the ocean should be plenty warm. The official forecast thus calls for Ike to restrengthen at 96 and 120 hr. Given the evolving atmospheric environment and land interactions…the intensity forecast has lower than normal confidence.

“Ike is currently being steered by a large middle to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic near Bermuda and the cyclone continues on a general west-southwestward heading with an initial motion estimate of 255/15. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward during the next couple of days allowing Ike to make a turn westward. In 3 to 4 days…a shortwave trough moving over the eastern United States is expected to create a weakness to the north of Ike resulting a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest.

“This shortwave trough will be a critical player in Ike’s eventual track at the extended ranges. Dynamical models are split into two camps at this time…with some models showing the shortwave passing sufficiently far to the north to keep Ike moving west-northwestward…while other models show Ike turning northward into the weakness. It is way too early to commit to either one of these extended range solutions…and thus the new official forecast Is very close to the previous advisory.”

You see, it’s a crapshoot.

The latest tropical ‘discussion’

September 5th, 2008, 10:48 am by

wind gusts 

The updated information this morning indicating that Tropical Storm Hanna had shifted west a hair means more rain and wind for Alamance County.

But the forecast shouldn’t be radically different than earlier projections, according to forecaster Jack Beven of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Beven and the other NHC experts monitor this stuff by the minute. Two to three times a day they write what they call “discussions” about tropical storms or hurricanes in play out in the Atlantic or in the Caribbean.

The good news from Beven’s 11 a.m. discussion is that Hanna isn’t likely to become a hurricane before landfall. From my perspective, that’s always good news.

But still Beven couldn’t rule it out completely.

Here’s what he wrote at 11 a.m.

“Satellite imagery and radar data from the melbourne wsr-88d indicate that Hanna has become a little better organized this morning. … However…the radar-observed velocities do not yet suggest intensification. The initial intensity remains 55 kt.

“The center of Hanna jogged westward between 06-12z. However…the Melbourne radar suggest the center has resumed a more northward motions…with the initial motion estimated at 325/17. Hanna is moving around the western end of the subtropical ridge over the Western Atlantic and should enter the westerlies in 24-48 hr. This should result in recurvature to the northeast and acceleration.

“All guidance agrees with this scenario… The forecast track is adjusted a little to the left for the first 36 hr to account for the initial position … and is close to the previous forecast track thereafter.

“While vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment are still Issues … the increased organization suggests the possibility of strengthening before landfall. Thus…the intensity forecast calls

“For a peak intensity of 60 kt near landfall.

“None of the guidance Indicates that Hanna will reach hurricane strength prior to landfall … although this cannot be ruled out. The cyclone should weaken after landfall and become extratropical in about 48 hr.”

We’ll see what Hanna delivers. This area could still use the rainfall — but gusty 40 mph winds are nettlesome to deal with, especially when it comes to electricity.

Stay tuned.

Watching Hanna from afar

September 5th, 2008, 8:10 am by

image of storm 

My father-in-law started watching Tropical Storm Hanna almost as soon as we arrived in New Jersey on Sunday. Oh, he had monitored the storm a few days before that from his home in Swansboro along the North Carolina coast but now this show was on the road.

“That’s the first time that channel’s been on in this house,” my brother-in-law Vinnie said when his dad practically demanded some access to The Weather Channel, at least at the usual time  when the station produces the Tropical Update.  You could set your watch by it — 10 minutes before every hour.

I know this because I once lived on the North Carolina coast. When you live there, August to October is spent monitoring  the Tropical Update and checking out the exploits of Weather Channel road warrior Jim Cantore who specializes in wearing rain slickers, clutching telephone poles and screaming into a microphone to be heard above winds that sound like a large aircraft taking off.

I honestly say I hadn’t missed this one bit since I moved to Burlington.

But on Sunday, Monday and … well the rest of the week I was sucked in. My wife, sister-in-law, father-in-law and I were traveling earlier this week to attend the funeral of Uncle Rocco in Brooklyn. My father-in-law, who we call Papa Joe, had to make sure Hanna wouldn’t be a problem before we got back on Wednesday.

stocking upboarding upboarding upWe continued to watch the storm creep up the coast — as many Atlantic hurricanes are want to do — with North Carolina seemingly its target. On the ride home Papa Joe was speculating about whether or not he would need to board up the large picture window at the front of his house that seems to bend but not break during one hurricane after another. A trip to the grocery store was a no-brainer. People stock up on bread if a hurricane gets within a week of the coast.

Boarding up is trickier. If it’s a tropical storm, no — if it’s a hurricane — then maybe.

By later Thursday he’d decided not to board up for Hanna but decided instead to keep a wary eye on Ike. I thought that might be a good plan. I didn’t like Ike too much on Tuesday and don’t care for it any more when I see it today. Ike’s projected path looks real familiar for folks who have lived on the North Carolina coast for more than summer vacation.

So now I’m hooked on The Weather Channel again. I’ll try to get clean in October.

TML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/html4/strict.dtd"> Hurricane Alley | Madison Taylor




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