The updated information this morning indicating that Tropical Storm Hanna had shifted west a hair means more rain and wind for Alamance County.
But the forecast shouldn’t be radically different than earlier projections, according to forecaster Jack Beven of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Beven and the other NHC experts monitor this stuff by the minute. Two to three times a day they write what they call “discussions” about tropical storms or hurricanes in play out in the Atlantic or in the Caribbean.
The good news from Beven’s 11 a.m. discussion is that Hanna isn’t likely to become a hurricane before landfall. From my perspective, that’s always good news.
But still Beven couldn’t rule it out completely.
Here’s what he wrote at 11 a.m.
“Satellite imagery and radar data from the melbourne wsr-88d indicate that Hanna has become a little better organized this morning. … However…the radar-observed velocities do not yet suggest intensification. The initial intensity remains 55 kt.
“The center of Hanna jogged westward between 06-12z. However…the Melbourne radar suggest the center has resumed a more northward motions…with the initial motion estimated at 325/17. Hanna is moving around the western end of the subtropical ridge over the Western Atlantic and should enter the westerlies in 24-48 hr. This should result in recurvature to the northeast and acceleration.
“All guidance agrees with this scenario… The forecast track is adjusted a little to the left for the first 36 hr to account for the initial position … and is close to the previous forecast track thereafter.
“While vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment are still Issues … the increased organization suggests the possibility of strengthening before landfall. Thus…the intensity forecast calls
“For a peak intensity of 60 kt near landfall.
“None of the guidance Indicates that Hanna will reach hurricane strength prior to landfall … although this cannot be ruled out. The cyclone should weaken after landfall and become extratropical in about 48 hr.”
We’ll see what Hanna delivers. This area could still use the rainfall — but gusty 40 mph winds are nettlesome to deal with, especially when it comes to electricity.